Multipolar World Order, Escalating Security Threats, and Geopolitical Conflicts in 2025

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamics of multipolarity in contemporary international relations, arguing that the diffusion of power across multiple centres amplifies instability by creating vacuums that invite rivalry, proxy wars, and hybrid threats. Employing a qualitative research design, the analysis traces three contemporary cases: the escalation of the Ukraine war, rising tensions over Taiwan, and insurgencies in the Sahel, drawing evidence from open‑source intelligence (OSINT), 2025 policy and security reports, and elite interviews. Findings reveal that multi-polarisation intensifies threats through U.S. retrenchment, BRICS+ expansion, and hybrid risks such as cyber operations in the Baltics and drone swarm deployments in the Middle East. Yet institutions, including the G20, BRICS+, and regional organisations, provide partial stabilising effects by embedding dialogue and cooperation. The study contributes to debates on realism and liberal institutionalism, highlighting the policy relevance of concert diplomacy and scenario planning, while identifying future research directions on artificial intelligence in multipolar deterrence.